Forecasting Fishing Vessels' Costs And Earnings A Synthetic Approach Applied to the Trawl Fleet of The United States' Northeast Regions

This study describes the New England Otter Trawl§Fishery between 1982 and 1998 and the potential§economic impacts of regulations on the Northeastern§Multispecies Groundfish Fishery (MGF).§This research uses primary data collected by the§author and secondary data obtained from the National§Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). This analysis§required extensive econometric analysis of both value§landed and cost data. The landed value is influenced§by the vessel's physical characteristics, port of§landing, seasonal choices of fishing gear-species§combinations, days at sea and distance from shore,§and the captain's skill (also referred to as the§"skipper effect"). The vessel-cost model is composed§of several equations, each corresponding to a§variable, indivisible or fixed cost item. The§estimated equations are used to synthesize an§economic model of vessel behavior, which was used to§examine the impacts of selected regulations on the§fishing industry. The results indicate differential§impacts, which affect larger vessels (especially§above 90 feet). This finding is pertinent to concerns§often expressed about the survival of small vessels§under an individual transferable quota (ITQ) regime.